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The UFC’s biggest star is back in action in the first pay-per-view event of the new year as Conor McGregor takes on Dustin Poirier at UFC 257 on Fight Island in a six-year rematch.
The last time McGregor and Poirier met, the Irish superstar was an unranked fighter who was still on the rise as Poirier looked to fulfill his potential on the roster. McGregor officially announced his arrival with a superb first round knockout, and the world of MMA has not been the same since.
MORE: UFC 257 Date, Start Time, Card, PPV Price, Odds vs Dustin Poirier
As McGregor rocked the world as the first UFC fighter to hold world titles in two different weight classes simultaneously and broke records as the greatest debut the sport has ever seen, Poirier made an effort professional to get back in position to challenge a world title.
The version of themselves they will see through the Octagon on Saturday night will be very different from the one they encountered six years ago. But will the result be the same or will Poirier get his long-awaited redemption?
UFC 257 odds for McGregor vs. Poirier
- Conor McGregor: -300
- Dustin Poirier: +240
Odds via BetMGM
In the six and a half years since they first met, McGregor has amassed a 6-2 record with five of his six knockout wins. Aside from being subdued by undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov, McGregor’s only other loss during this span was against Nate Diaz two weight classes above his normal battle weight. He would continue to avenge this loss.
As for Poirier, he went 10-2 with 1 No Contest since the McGregor fight. He too suffered a submission loss to Nurmagomedov, but also lost to Michael Johnson by knockout in 2016. Some might be surprised to find that he beat four former champions in his recent run with wins over the former. UFC featherweight champion Max Holloway and one stoppage. wins over former lightweight champions Justin Gaethje, Anthony Pettis and Eddie Alvarez.
But what does this mean for the rematch?
McGregor still has dynamite in his left hand but continues to complete his defense against strikes and takedowns. He beat Donald Cerrone last January, but it’s hard to understand what that victory means given that Cerrone has been down lately.
Poirier went to war with Dan Hooker last June in a Fighting Candidate of the Year who showed formidable determination, improved strikes and conditioning. He’s the top-ranked fighter due to his impressive resume, but punters settled McGregor as a pretty heavy favorite (-240) when the fight was announced. And those odds continue to widen as he is now a -300 favorite via BetMGM. Meanwhile, Poirier started out as a 2-1 underdog at +200, and that line expanded to +240.
This fight is extremely difficult to understand. Poirier demonstrated an excellent grappling hook and eliminated deadly competition with his much improved strike. The problem is, he’s still hit a lot more often than he should, as evidenced by his brawl with Dan Hooker. He has shown his ability to remain calm in the face of the fire and to pull himself together when in trouble.
As for McGregor, the punch remains fierce and his killer instinct runs deep. But the degree of difficulty and activity is not quite up to that of Poirier. Even though Diaz has turned out to be a fan favorite, he doesn’t come close to what Gaethje and Holloway have achieved.
Conventional wisdom would suggest that if McGregor got the finish, it would be in the first two rounds. He never got a knockout after the second round. For that reason, one would have to think that Poirier is planning to weather the storm early and see what McGregor has in the later laps.
Currently, combat that lasts more than 2.5 rounds is at +150. And this is perhaps the best line for a bettor who is planning to gain value by placing a bet on Poirier.
But if you’re a believer in the Mystic Mac, taking McGregor -300 would make pairing with a side bet a necessity to find value. In this case, the fight ending in less than 1.5 rounds is a +105.
McGregor shouldn’t be such a big favorite given his inactivity. Needing to place a $ 300 bet to win a $ 100 profit just seems too high a price to pay, no matter how much you’d like to think McGregor is going to win.
Poirier gives you much more value. His path to victory is unlikely to be an early knockout, as McGregor has a formidable chin. However, there is light at the end of the tunnel if Poirier takes him on lap four or five, where McGregor is prone to fatigue. As demonstrated in his fights against Diaz, McGregor is vulnerable to fatigue, and that gives Poirier an opening to bring the fight to the canvas.
MORE: Save over 30% with the purchase of UFC 257 and an ESPN + Annual Package for just $ 89.98
Poirier will have to bet on questioning McGregor’s conditioning to gain the upper hand. He’s more than talented enough in the hitting and wrestling departments to do just that. He’s also aware of McGregor’s power, and that should keep him from stupidly rushing around and fighting like he did against Hooker.
If it was a match-price fight, it would be easier to suggest McGregor given his hitting accuracy and ability to end the fight in a flash. However, Poirier has something to prove, and his establishment as such a major underdog allows a potential bettor to win a few more dollars without a big investment.
Don’t bet the house on Poirier, but trust a solid bet that could generate a substantial profit.
McGregor vs Poirier prediction
Choice: Dustin Poirier (+240) and Over 2.5 rounds (+150)
Chances: +240 and +150
McGregor vs Poirier odds
Total number or laps: more / less
- Over 1.5: -125
- Less than 1.5: +105
Total number or laps: more / less
- Over 2.5: +150
- Less than 2.5: -185
Total number or laps: more / less
- Over 3.5: +225
- Less than 3.5: -275
Will the fight go the distance?
Method of victory
- McGregor by KO / TKO, DQ or Submission: -200
- McGregor by decision: +700
- To attach: +5000
- Pear tree by KO / TKO, DQ or Submission: +475
- Poirier by decision: +600
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