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Hello and welcome back!
After a weak performance last week, US futures and global equities are advancing this morning as we head into a busy period for corporate earnings. Below I offer an introduction on what to look for. Oh, and Postscript is back. Warning to readers: this is about food.
But first, let’s see what is moving the markets.
Market update
Asia
- The main Asia Index are mixed in the afternoon trade with Hong Kong Hang Seng high 2.7%.
- Chinese economy has grown 2.3% last year, helped by a strong surge in the fourth quarter. China is now on the verge of overtaking the United States as the largest economy in the world by 2026, FortuneNaomi Xu Elegant from reports.
- the World Economic Forum came out with its annual risk report and the 2021 version makes reading difficult. What could there be in the years to come? A gloomy youth precariat and state collapse (along with the usual gloominess of the climate crisis).
Europe
- theEuropean scholarshipswere much higher during the first exchanges with theStoxx Europe 600 high 0.5% outdoors.
- COVID-19[female[feminine left a 600 billion euro hole in the balance sheet of European companies, warns a leading commercial partner, an argument for Brussels to prepare another recovery plan.
- Shares in Stellantis, the newly merged Fiat-Peugeot alliance, officially started trading yesterday in Paris and Milan under the teleprinter, STLA. He almost closed 8% higher Monday. Auto stocks, meanwhile, were flat Tuesday after the data showed car sales fell a record last year 24%.
WE
- American Futuresedged up slightly throughout the morning with all three trades poised to start the week in the green.
- A recap: the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all of them finished lower last week, the worst performance since October.
- Janet Yellen will testify today before the Senate Finance Committee (the same group that will vote decisively on his candidacy for Treasury secretary), and the big question will be: fair how much debt can the United States afford to fight to emerge from this economic crisis?
- In today’s earnings schedule we have: Bank of America, Halliburton and Netflix, to name a few.
Somewhere else
- Gold is in place, exchange $ 1,840 / ounce.
- the dollar is slightly lower.
- Gross is a key, with Brent to negotiate $ 55 / barrel.
- Bitcoin East up 3.2% in the last 24 hours at $ 37,100, but trade has been volatile over the past 10 days.
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Winning season
This week and the next is the busiest part of the results season. The last big bank report this week, and next week we get a wave of Big Tech results. In fact, companies representing more than half of the S&P 500 market cap will report between January 25 and February 5. Goldman Sachs calculated.
For much of 2020, businesses ravaged by COVID repeatedly threw in the towel and refused to give investors a full perspective. This will not be tolerated this year.
Here’s what else you should be looking for.
The comparison Q4 2020-Q4-2019 will be brutal. Across the S&P 500, Goldman predicts, EPS should have fallen 11% (take energy out of the equation, and that’s just bad – an 8% decline in EPS year-on-year). Line winners in healthcare, IT and materials.
Going forward, investors should focus on the estimate for the full year 2021 and compare that with the pre-pandemic performance for the full year 2019, advises Goldman. By this measure, the S&P looks a little better in the future. The median S&P company is expected to post a 2019-21 EPS growth rate of + 4%.
A return to growth is therefore imminent, confirming Goldman’s view that the benchmark S&P will climb to 4,300 by the end of the year.
We will know soon enough if this is plausible.
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Postscript
A longtime Bull Sheet reader sent me a note over the weekend with a simple request. The subject line read “Minestrone Soup”.
One of the most memorable “authentic” minestrone soup meals he ever ate, he explained, was at a Roman restaurant. Pension years ago. “Lucky,” he asked, “could you post a good recipe for the same thing in your column?”
SOS Soup
It would be, I knew, a job for Postscript. “Definitely,” I replied.
I have to admit I thought it would be a simple task. That was before I fell into a rabbit hole of minestrone recipes. You see, Italian families live off minestrone soup from September to May. Come at mealtime, it’s a mustfirst. (A reminder: no Italian meal is complete without the trinity:first-second-wine.)
Sitting in the kitchen on Sunday afternoon, I consulted two expert sources on the subject: the Italian food cookbook and Xtina, my wife. Italians have countless minestrone recipes; there are over two dozen of them in the very first cookbook I chose. Ingredients depend on the time of year, what’s in the garden / local farmer’s market and what goes best with the pasta of choice for soup,soup.
As my wife explained, Italians have a real respect for the minestrone as a first. Just as your CFO would never advise you to load your portfolio with nothing but growth stocks, Italians would never think of serving. Pasta (or, dry pasta) with each meal. Also, you can find a decent dish ofPastaall over Italy. A good minestrone is harder to find.
Here’s how we make the minestrone at Casa Warner:
We start with three humble vegetables: the potato, Zucchini and carrot. In the fall, we could replacepumpkin, or sweet pumpkin. In the fall it could beWhite, or chard.
The key, my wife emphasizes, is to start with a beautifulsofrito. Pour a little olive oil, diced onions and a bay leaf and let them cook in a nice sweet and aromatic base. Then drop your cubed vegetables into the pot, adding a little water or broth as you go. (We’re sticking with good old Roman tap water.) Oh, and don’t forget the salt. When the vegetables have cooked for a good hour, take asmall hand blenderand,zap, turn your floating, boiling vegetables into a thick broth. To give it more weight, go for more potatoes at the start. (White beans work great too, but it takes a bit more preparation.)
The next step: throw away your soup pasta, and serve with a spoonful of olive oil and a layer of Parmesan cheese.
Years ago, on a trip to Tuscany on a freezing February weekend, I discovered the local dish, the Ribollita. We do this several times a winter. It’s one of my favorites. As the name suggests, it gets better every time you heat it up and ladle it into your bowl.
the Ribollita requires a much more complex recipe as you need to get some pork bones to make the broth, as well as a few different types of cabbage. If you are interested in this recipe, let me know.
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Have a very good day everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow… Until then, there’s more news below.
Bernhard Warner
@BernhardWarner
Bernhard.Warner@Fortune.com
As always, you can write tobullsheet@fortune.comor reply to this email with suggestions and comments.
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