Saturday, September 23, 2023

IPO exuberance aside, stocks are having a mediocre week

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Good Friday, Bull Sheeters. It’s a risk-free day as stocks and futures slide across Asia, Europe and the US

IPO timeline is much lighter today after yesterday successful Airbnb list, a start that values ​​the $ 100 billion home rental platform.

Never mind that hardly any of us can actually, you know, travel.

Let’s check what makes the markets move.

Market update


  • The mainAsia Indexare mixed in the afternoon trade with the Hang Seng lead the way, climb0.3%.
  • The Trump administration’s order last month to limit Chinese ads has a ripple effect for index managers and ETF providers in the world, the Financial Times reports. In short, they may have to follow suit to stay in the good graces of the US market authorities.
  • President elect Joe biden appointed a notorious China falcon, Katherine Tai, as her choice for the principal United States trade representative.


  • the European scholarships are in the red this morning with the Stoxx Europe 600 down 0.9% two hours after the start of the trading session.
  • Boris Johnson warns businesses and the UK public that a no-deal Brexit is now “a strong possibility. ” the FTSE and pound sterling collapsed again as investors worried about the economic uncertainty ahead.
  • Climate hawks will be delighted with the news from Brussels this morning. the EU trade bloc exposed the 2030 target reduce emissions by at least 55% (from 1990 levels). Oh, and Europe’s traditional bickering forces have also managed to do something Washington can’t: come to an agreement on a 1.8 trillion euros ($ 2.2 trillion) COVID Recovery plan.


  • American Futureshave slipped all morning. This is after tech stocks posted a modest gain yesterday. the S&P 500, meanwhile, has collapsed over the past two days, with Washington unable to make progress on second round of recovery, and it’s on a weekly expense allowance to fund the federal government.
  • Like the morning after a house party, all is calm for Airbnb share as I type; they are completely stable in pre-market trading. Pandemic home rental platform now has a market cap of over $ 100 billion after yesterday monster debut.
  • From vertigo to bleak, we will… Investors don’t care much about labor market data, but your correspondent does. Yesterday, 947,000 workers filing unemployment claims (on an adjusted basis it was 853K), as layoffs continue to increase. Bull Sheeters, I know, has a big heart. I know you will not forget those around us who are struggling during this Christmas time.

Somewhere else

  • Gold is flat, trades below $ 1,840 / ounce.
  • the dollar is higher.
  • Gross is down, but Brent futures are trading above $ 50 / barrel, a 9-month high.
  • Bitcoin continues to swing wildly. It is low 3%, trading below $ 18,000.


In numbers


As we wrap up IPO week, let’s check out the big new announcements. DoorDash skyrockets 85.8% in its first session on Wednesday, lifting 3.4 billion dollars. Yesterday, it was Airbnb’s turn, closing a 115% above its list price. had aeven more amazing beginnings, with stocks leaping over 150% at some point on the first day. In a year of epic bullish rallies, it’s probably fitting that we close out 2020 with a bit of IPO fad for tech stocks. What could possibly go wrong?


We get the retail sales figures for November on December 16, one of the last big data points for 2020 from which we can assess the health of the U.S. economy. Remember: consumer spending 70% of American economic output. Goldman Sachs, for his part, believes the numbers will be quite low, thanks to “a confluence of negative factors: declining budget support, a drop in shopping center traffic due to a pandemic and a high obstacle to the sequential growth of e-commerce following outsized gains earlier in the world. an. “They plan a -0.9% monthly decrease. It doesn’t sound like much, but for a Christmas season, it’s downright horrible. The failure of Congress to strike a deal on a new stimulus deal is a big culprit, Goldman says.


I missed not sharing our winner for the Dow 30K contest with you.

A quick reminder: in mid-January, in the very first Bull Sheet newsletter, I asked readers to give me their best guess for when the Dow Jones Industrial Average would break above 30,000. (It was trading around 29,500. at the time.)

The emails then streamed in, and reader after reader told me the blue chip index would exceed 30K by the end of January, no problem. Some others said, February, Reserve! Another thread definitely says at the end of the first trimester –let’s go with mars.

These were really bullish calls because, at that time, COVID was a known risk to the markets.

One reader, JU, from Munich, stood out. He told me September 15th would be the date. He was a little ahead of the game; the landmark closure took place on November 24. But he was by far the closest.

Well done, JU!


Have a very good day everyone. I’ll see you here tomorrow.

Bernhard Warner

As always, you can write tobullsheet@fortune.comor reply to this email with suggestions and comments.


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