Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Vaccines make CFOs more optimistic

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The emergence of a vaccine makes usually cautious CFOs more optimistic about the outlook for the US economy next year. This is my reading of Deloitte’s quarterly CFO signals survey – the most reliable CFO sentiment tracker I’ve ever seen.

The percentage of CFOs rating the North American economy as “good” or “very good” fell from 7% a quarter earlier to 18% in the latest poll. This puts North America ahead of Europe, where only 5% of respondents rate the current economy as “good” or “very good”, but well behind China, where 47% consider it “good” or ” very good”.

At one year, 59% of CFOs expect the US economy to improve. A majority (58%) expect the S&P 500 to be higher by the end of next year, and a similar majority (60%) believe the ten-year bond yield will remain below 2 %.

The majority of CFOs also hope that a new administration in the United States will lead to a more rigorous response to the pandemic, a new stimulus package and a bipartisan infrastructure bill. Hopefully they are right on all counts. You can read the full report later this morning. here.

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Alan murray


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