Sunday, September 24, 2023

Packers picks vs. Buccaneers, predictions vs. spread: why Tampa Bay will move on to Super Bowl 55

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When Tom Brady’s Buccaneers travel to play Aaron Rodgers’ Packers (-3.5, 51 o / u) In Sunday’s NFC Championship game (3:05 p.m. ET, Fox), there’s no more marquee than that.

Brady is in his 14th conference title game after making 13 of those AFC appearances with the Patriots. He’s looking for a chance for his seventh Super Bowl ring of Super Bowl 55. Meanwhile, Rodgers is playing home with a Super Bowl on the line for the first time at Lambeau Field, 10 years after leading the Packers to a Super Success. Bowl 45 operates as an NFC wild-card team.

The Bucs are also looking for fame as a wild card. The Packers were the best end-to-end team in NFC records with the league’s most significant offense that should bring Rodgers back to NFL MVP status.

Who will win this battle of n ° 12, n ° 1 against n ° 5? Using a few key numbers, here’s a deep dive into the Tampa Bay-Green Bay game, a rematch of a Week 6 game the Buccaneers won at home, 38-10.

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Choices, predictions of the Packers vs Buccaneers

  • The Buccaneers run the game against the Packers run the defense

The Buccaneers may be too happy with downstream passes under the Arians, as Brady also likes to take his shots against head-to-head cover. They can fall in love with Brady’s myriad of guns that are given wide and tight tipped guns where they can step away from power football even when it’s there to take it.

Tampa Bay finished off with the offense in race No. 28 in the regular season. The Packers, despite a few hiccups, found themselves in the first half, No.13 against the run – tied with many teams often having to try to catch Rodgers in the second half.

The Rams did crush the Packers with rookie Cam Akers, before the game’s storyline forced them to walk away from the race in the second half. The Buccaneers lost 30 carries in a division between Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones to rack up 127 yards on a good defense against the Saints’ run. They continued until they got key pieces in the second half and Fournette was a force in the short passing game as well.

In the first meeting, the Bucs presented Jones well (23 carries, 113 of his team’s 158 rushing yards, 2 touchdowns) as they won 38-10 after spotting the Packers with a 10-point lead in the first. quarter. If the Bucs stay engaged in the race again, as they should be working the clock and trying to limit the opportunities for Rodgers to respond to Brady, they will have another solid game with their offensive line playing hard. Benefit: buccaneers

  • The Packers run the game against the Buccaneers run the defense

The Packers hit the Rams well with their offense in the No.8 rush, reaching nearly 200 yards with mostly free agents on hold, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. The Buccaneers’ top-ranked running defense had a few issues with Alvin Kamara of the Saints, but overall it contained a very powerful running game.

The Bucs just don’t produce a lot of leaks up front and are much louder than the Rams were in this capacity. They would prefer not to hire an additional defenseman to back support so defensive coordinator Todd Bowles isn’t handcuffed with his seven back blitz. Other than a few long runs from Williams and rookie AJ ​​Dillon, there wasn’t much room for them or Aaron Jones. The Bucs need to be convinced that they can at least keep the Packers one-dimensional to give Bowles a better idea of ​​how to put pressure on Rodgers. Benefit: buccaneers

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  • Buccaneers passing play vs. Packers passing defense

The Buccaneers were No.2 in the NFL by the way, sandwiched between the Chiefs and AFC finalist Bills. They trusted Brady a lot with high volume and often low throws because he’s Bruce Arians after all. The Packers were No. 7 against the pass, with a combination of “The Smith Brothers” (Preston and Za’Darius) putting some edge pressure and Jaire Alexander and Adrian Amos leading a strong second.

Brady looked into the run well in Week 6, didn’t hold the ball for long, and was calculated by mostly spreading the ball over short to intermediate routes. He should have. A few hits develop out of the game-action. The Packers do a good job covering tight ends and Alexander could slow Mike Evans down yet again. But the Bucs can plan to get the Chris Godwin slot machine and their other big receivers open to Alexander. Benefit: buccaneers

MORE PICS: Why the Chiefs will beat the Bills to reach Super Bowl 55

  • The Packers pass the game against the Buccaneers pass the defense

The Packers had the No. 9 passing offense during the regular season. Rodgers could have thrown a lot more to bolster his already MVP-worthy stats, but the Packers controlled plenty of second-half clashes, turning games into efficient running and pass defense. The Buccaneers have good young defensive backs, led by corner Carlton Davis and rookie safety Antoine Winfield Jr. They also have two more savvy 3-4 edge rushers for Bowles in Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquill Barrett.

But sometimes there is a disconnect and the Buccaneers have been more vulnerable to certain block sets, either after the second level capture or after a downstream failure. The Packers have worked to open Davante Adams at key locations away from the Rams’ Jalen Ramsey and will do the same against Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean. The Bucs need linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David to have another good cover game after dominating against the Saints.

Always Rodgers, will find the holes, will profit whenever the lapses happen and settle into a few matchups he loves. Rodgers will be motivated to make up for his shaky Week 6 at Tampa Bay and will stay on point in a top QB duel with Brady. Advantage: Packers

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The Packers and Bucs have auxiliary players in the passing game that might surprise to boost Brady and Rodgers with big plays. The Packers saw wide receivers Allen Lazard and Equanimeous St. Brown have some great moments against the Rams. The Bucs wouldn’t have beaten the Saints without the clutch grips of Tyler Johnson, Scotty Miller and tight No.2 Cameron Brate. Running backs can also play a key role in checkdowns, with defenses worrying about all other pieces. Advantage: Packers

The matches on the field are pretty even with Mason Crosby of the Packers and Ryan Succop of the Buccaneers, although they are known more for their precision than their reach. The Packers have had a noticeably bad second leg this season while the Bucs aren’t much better. The Packers ‘JK Scott and the Buccaneers’ Bradley Pinion move closer to the boat. The Bucs struggled to cover the Saints and it almost cost them. Also give an emotional and familiar side to the Lambeau team. Advantage: Packers

MORE: Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers is it the best NFC title game of all time?

Arians has won many games with different teams at 68. Matt LaFleur, 27 his junior at 41, developed his own reputation as one of the sharpest offensive minds in the game and in two years at the helm of Green Bay he has done a good situational job without any glaring mistakes. . Arians teams can tend to be unruly at times and between him, Byron Leftwich and Bowles they can get too aggressive at the wrong times. Advantage: Packers

Brady wants to prove he can make it to a Super Bowl without Bill Belichick and the Patriots. Rodgers, after the team drafted Jordan Love, also used that latest chip on his shoulder to have one of his best seasons. The Bucs also know they can be the first team to play in the Super Bowl at their stadium. The intensity will not be lacking on both sides. Brady has done this a lot, but his Bucs are new at this point. But the Packers are also limited in the big winning experience around Rodgers. Benefit: buccaneers

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NFC Championship Match Prediction

This game will be an instant classic with Brady and Rodgers having an epic duel. This game will come down to the last team to have the ball. With 10 games, Green Bay and Tampa Bay would each win five. When Brady is involved in games like these and plays so well, it’s tough to face the six-ring GOAT, even with a three-time MVP to be on the other side. The toss lands in Tampa over Green Bay this time.

Buccaneers 30, Packers 27


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