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Fernando Tatis Jr. is happy in San Diego, and why wouldn’t he be?
He is surrounded by a multitude of talented players and a front office clearly committed to winning a World Series; the offseason for acquiring top talent has been spectacular for Padres fans. And the Padres are obviously happy that Tatis is happy. And they’re happy their fans are happy with Tatis – his jersey ranked fourth in sales among all MLB players in 2020. So the player and the club have reportedly agreed to a deal that will keep the rising superstar in town. During a very long time. time. The terms, as reported by several sources: 14 years, 340 million dollars.
BENDER: Is Tatis’ contract worth it? For Padres, it’s an easy “yes”
Baseball has never seen a contract like this, for several reasons.
First, there’s this: At 14, it’s the longest contract in MLB history, breaking the previous 13-year mark held by both Bryce Harper (free agent) and Giancarlo Stanton (extension ). However, the $ 340 million is not the highest amount. It is “only” third on the list. Mookie Betts’ extension with the Dodgers came in at $ 365 million and Mike Trout’s extension to his deal was $ 360 million.
Here’s what really makes this one unique: Tatis just turned 22 on January 2nd. Yeah, it’s different.
This is the 15th deal a player has signed – as a free agent deal or as an extension – for $ 240 million or more. Trout was entering his 27-year-old season when he signed his 10-year, $ 360 million extension. Betts entered their season at 27, and Harper and Stanton both entered their 26-year-olds. Alex Rodriguez made this list twice; he signed with the Rangers as a free agent at the start of his season at 25, the extension he signed with the Yankees started his season at 32.
Others: Gerrit Cole (entering season 29), Manny Machado (26), Nolan Arenado (28), Stephen Strasburg (31), Anthony Rendon (30), Albert Pujols (32) and Robinson Cano (31 years old). Miguel Cabrera was 31 when he signed his eight-year, $ 248 million extension in 2014, but that extension didn’t start until 2016, when he was 33.
Several of those deals turned out to be benign catastrophes, without a doubt, and the same goes when you go through the rest of the list of contracts signed for $ 150 million or more. But that’s because a lot of these important and lucrative deals were signed knowing that the player would receive higher prizes for the seasons played in the mid to late 30s. Almost all of these players were underpaid during their peak years and overpaid during their waning seasons. It’s a messy system.
Tatis, however? The Padres pay hefty prices for what they expect to be his peak years. Did we mention he’s entering his 22-year-old season?
This agreement will end a few months before his 37th birthday. Cabrera played 57 games for the Tigers in 2020, his 37-year season; it produced a 0.0 bWAR. Pujols has played four years since his 37th birthday, and the Angels have pledged to pay him $ 110 million over those seasons (the actual total is lower due to the pandemic shortened 2020 season), with $ 30 million additional dollars on sale for 2021. Four seasons after his 37th birthday, Pujols produced a minus 0.7 bWAR.
You just can’t compare the Tatis deal to most of the deals on this list.
Tatis has been pretty amazing during his short time in the majors, finishing third in the 2019 NL Rookie of the Year vote and fourth in the 2020 NL MVP race. In those 143 career games, Tatis has a 7.0 bWAR , 39 home runs, 27 stolen goals, 98 RBIs, 111 runs scored, a .301 / .374 / .571 slash line with a 154 OPS +. A breathtaking production for such a young star, without a doubt.
AFTER: Even with a new pay rise, minor leaguers unfortunately remain underpaid
But yes, it is a risk for the club. Because let’s face it: The Padres just committed $ 340 million to a player who has yet to play a full season in the greats, and regardless of talent, inner motivation or level of confidence in the player. , there is a factor of “yikes” in this equation. If a player is worth that bet, it’s Tatis.
Young players signing an extension are of course quite common. These deals typically cover their years of officiating and one or two free agent seasons, most often with club options. Some guys even lock in long-term money with little to no time in the majors – Eloy Jimenez signed a six-year, $ 43 million contract with the White Sox before playing his first major league game. But there was nothing at the level of this Tatis agreement.
Watch the Braves, who agreed to a long-term deal with their young rising superstar, Ronald Acuña Jr., in April 2019. He was the 2018 NL Rookie of the Year, but only had one full season and 111 games under his big league belt coming in 2019, his season at 21. Acuña’s deal spanned his years in officiating, plus two potential free agent seasons (2025-2026), with club options for 2027 and 2028. He can hit the free agent market after his 30-year season. .
The baseline for this agreement: eight years, $ 100 million. If both options are chosen – and they will be an absolute steal for the club if they are still healthy, at $ 17 million per season – the total deal will be 10 years, $ 134 million. It’s not even the same universe as Tatis’ total guarantee of $ 340 million. The compromise? Acuña, if he’s still the superstar, everyone expects him to – and for two years since signing the deal – could land another lucrative free agent contract at the end of its current agreement. He will only enter his season at 31.
Make no mistake: this Tatis contract is revolutionary. But is it avant-garde? Probably not, honestly, and here’s why: There might be only one other player who deserves to even discuss this type of deal so early in his career.
Let’s just say The chances of nationals signing Juan Soto because even a penny less than a transaction at full market value has completely evaporated.
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